EpiCast Report: Asthma - Epidemiology Forecast to 2022 -





Published: May 2013 | Pages: 79 

Asthma is one of the most common chronic diseases in the world, with an estimated 300 million people suffering from the disease in 2004 (Masoli et al., 2004). The 2004 Global Initiative for Asthma (GINA) report estimated that prevalence of asthma in the general population varied widely in different countries around the world, with proportions ranging between 1% in Albania and 18% in Wales (Masoli et al., 2004; WHO, 2007). Asthma accounts for approximately 250,000 deaths around the world annually, deaths that otherwise could be easily prevented through appropriate treatment (Masoli et al., 2004; WHO, 2007).

GlobalData epidemiologists predict a substantial increase in the number of lifetime prevalent cases of asthma in the 10 major markets during the forecast period. GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that there will be approximately 159.20 million lifetime prevalent cases of asthma in the 10 major markets by 2022, with an overall growth of 17.7% over the next decade. GlobalData epidemiologists attribute the projected increase in the lifetime prevalent cases of asthma across all the markets covered in this analysis to changing population demographics in the respective markets, except for the US and the UK, where this growth is also attributed to trends in genetic determinants, social status, environmental factors, and changes in policies related to disease identification and recording (Simpson and Sheikh, 2010; Smith et al., 2005).


Scope

- The asthma EpiCast Report provides overview of the risk factors and global trends for asthma in the 10 major markets (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, Australia, China, and India). 
- In addition, the report includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast of the lifetime prevalent cases of asthma segmented by sex, age (in five-year increments beginning at 0 years and ending at ages 85 years and older), and asthma severity in these 10 markets.


Reasons to buy

- Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global asthma market.
- Quantify patient populations in the global asthma market to improve product development, pricing, and launch plans. 
- Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the sex, age groups, and disease severity groups that present the best opportunities for asthma therapeutics in each of the markets covered. 

1 Table of Contents 4
1.1 List of Tables 6
1.2 List of Figures 7
2 Introduction 8
2.1 Catalyst 8
2.2 Upcoming Reports 8
3 Epidemiology 9
3.1 Disease Background 9
3.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities 10
3.2.1 Family history of asthma is a strong predictor for asthma in children and adults 11
3.2.2 Puberty alters the risk for asthma in boys and girls 12
3.2.3 Maternal smoking during pregnancy increases the risk of childhood asthma by almost 70% 13
3.2.4 Allergens are well-known asthma triggers 14
3.2.5 Common workplace exposures account for up to 11% of asthma cases in adults 15
3.2.6 Urban living conditions, not race, increase the risk of asthma by almost 50% 16
3.2.7 Obesity almost triples the risk of developing asthma 17
3.2.8 Asthmatics are 90% more likely to develop GERD 18
3.2.9 85% of asthmatics have allergic rhinitis 19
3.2.10 Panic disorders are common in asthmatics and severely impact disease control 20
3.2.11 Thirty-nine percent of asthmatics are likely to develop depression 21
3.3 Global Trends 21
3.3.1 US 22
3.3.2 France 24
3.3.3 Germany 25
3.3.4 Italy 25
3.3.5 Spain 26
3.3.6 UK 27
3.3.7 Japan 28
3.3.8 Australia 29
3.3.9 China 29
3.3.10 India 30
3.4 Forecast Methodology 32
3.4.1 Sources Used 33
3.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods 44
3.4.3 Sources Not Used 51
3.5 Epidemiology Forecast for Asthma (2012–2022) 51
3.5.1 Lifetime Prevalent Cases of Asthma 51
3.5.2 Age-Specific Lifetime Prevalent Cases of Asthma 53
3.5.3 Sex-Specific Lifetime Prevalent Cases of Asthma 55
3.5.4 Age-Standardized Lifetime Prevalence of Asthma 57
3.5.5 Distribution of Lifetime Prevalent Cases of Asthma by Severity 58
3.6 Discussion 61
3.6.1 Conclusions on Epidemiology Trends 61
3.6.2 Limitations of the Analysis 63
3.6.3 Strengths of the Analysis 64
4 Appendix 65
4.1 Bibliography 65
4.2 About the Authors 75
4.2.1 Epidemiologists 75
4.2.2 Reviewers 75
4.2.3 Global Director of Epidemiology and Clinical Trials Analysis 77
4.2.4 Global Head of Healthcare 77
4.3 About GlobalData 78
4.4 About EpiCast 78
4.5 Contact Us 79
4.6 Disclaimer 79



List of Tables

Table 1: GINA Guidelines for Classification of Asthma by Severity 9
Table 2: Risk Factors and Comorbidities of Asthma 10
Table 3: Lifetime Prevalence (%) of Asthma by Race in the US, All Ages, Both Sexes, 2001–2011 23
Table 4: Trends in the Prevalence (%) of Self-reported Asthma in Children in Spain 26
Table 5: Trends in the Lifetime Prevalence (%) of Asthma in the UK 27
Table 6: Lifetime Prevalence (%) of Asthma in Children in China 30
Table 7: Prevalence (%) of Asthma in Children and Adults in India 31
Table 8: Questions Asked to Assess Lifetime Asthma Prevalence 32
Table 9: All Markets, Epidemiological Sources of Lifetime Asthma Prevalence Data 33
Table 10: All Markets, Epidemiological Sources of Asthma Severity Data 34
Table 11: Overview of the Ellis Criteria for Childhood Asthma Severity Classification 43
Table 12: All Markets, Lifetime Prevalent Cases of Asthma, All Ages, Men and Women, N (Millions), 2012–2022 52
Table 13: All Markets, Lifetime Prevalent Cases of Asthma, by Age, N (Millions), (Row %), 2012 54
Table 14: All Markets, Lifetime Prevalent Cases of Asthma, by Sex, All Ages, N (Row %), 2012 56
Table 15: All Markets, Lifetime Prevalent Cases of Asthma by Severity, All Ages, Men and Women, N (Row %), 2012 59



List of Figures

Figure 1: Lifetime Prevalence (%) of Asthma by Race in the US, All Ages, Both Sexes, 2001–2011 23
Figure 2: All Markets, Lifetime Prevalent Cases of Asthma, All Ages, Men and Women, N (Millions), 2012–2022 53
Figure 3: All Markets, Lifetime Prevalent Cases of Asthma, by Age, N (Millions), 2012 55
Figure 4: All Markets, Lifetime Prevalent Cases of Asthma, by Sex, N (Millions), 2012 57
Figure 5: All Markets, Age-Standardized Lifetime Prevalence of Asthma, All Ages, Men and Women, %, 2012 58

Figure 6: All Markets, Lifetime Prevalent Cases of Asthma by Severity, All Ages, Men and Women, N (Millions), 2012 60