PharmaPoint: Seasonal Influenza Vaccines - Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022: Event-Driven Update -



Published: September 2013 | Pages: 321 | Format: PDF

Seasonal Influenza is a respiratory infection caused by influenza virus that results in mild to severe symptoms, such as fever, cold and cough. The market is heavily driven by the sales of prophylactic vaccine treatments to prevent infection. Currently, trivalent intramuscular vaccines such as Sanofi’s Fluzone and Vaxigrip, GlaxoSmithKline’s Fluarix and FluLaval and Novartis’ Fluvirin garner the majority stake of the market. However, with the entrance of vaccines with novel routes of administration, such as AstraZeneca’s intranasal FluMist and Sanofi’s Fluzone IntraDermal, GlobalData projects a dramatic shift favoring the adoption of such vaccines over the traditional intramuscular vaccines. GlobalData also anticipates that manufacturers that launch quadrivalent formulations will steal market share, patient share, and revenue from the trivalent influenza vaccines currently available.  

Scope 

 

  • Overview of seasonal influenza, including epidemiology, etiology, general symptoms from infection, and national vaccination recommendations and guidelines. 
  • Annualized seasonal influenza vaccine market revenue, annual cost of vaccination and treatment usage pattern data from 2012 and forecast for ten years to 2022. 
  • Key topics covered include strategic competitor assessment, market characterization, unmet needs, clinical trial mapping and implications for the seasonal influenza market. 
  • Pipeline analysis: comprehensive data split across different phases and emerging trends, specifically cell culture based vaccines and quadrivalent vaccines with novel routes of administration. 
  • Analysis of the current and future market competition in the global seasonal influenza vaccine market. Insightful review of the key industry and governmental drivers, restraints and challenges. Each trend is independently researched to provide qualitative analysis of its implications. 

 

Market Model Features 

An interactive excel forecast model based on primary research interviews and surveys with KOLs and high-prescribing physicians is included in this report*. This patient based model provides diagnosis rates, patient segmentation, treatment rates, annual costs of therapy , and indication-specific drug sales for the 10 year forecast period. The forecast model is robust, fully transparent, and easy to navigate. Moreover, our models support data presented in the reports and the complete methodology is outlined in the report and the model. 

*Model only available with site and global license purchases. 

Key Findings 

 

  • Quadrivalent vaccines are expected to cannibalize sales of trivalent vaccines or overtake trivalent vaccine sales. 
  • New market entrants will increase competitiveness in the areas of production, manufacturing, fidelity to circulating influenza strains and strength of immune response elicited. 
  • The initiation of a government initiative in the UK with Fluenz (FluMist) is anticipated to dramatically change market dynamics. 

 

1 Table of Contents 

1.1 List of Tables 

1.2 List of Figures 

2 Introduction 

2.1 Catalyst 

2.2 Related Reports 

2.3 Upcoming Related Reports 

3 Disease Overview 

3.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology 

3.1.1 Etiology 

3.1.2 Pathophysiology 

3.2 Symptoms 

3.3 Prognosis 

4 Epidemiology 

4.1 Risk Factors and Comorbidities 

4.2 Global Trends 

4.2.1 United States 

4.2.2 France 

4.2.3 Germany 

4.2.4 Italy 

4.2.5 Spain 

4.2.6 United Kingdom 

4.2.7 Japan 

4.2.8 China 

4.2.9 India 

4.3 Forecast Methodology 

4.3.1 Sources Used 

4.3.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods 

4.4 Epidemiological Forecast (2012-2022) 

4.4.1 Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Coverage, N (%) 

4.5 Discussion 

4.5.1 Global Vaccination Coverage Outlook 

4.5.2 Limitations in Analysis 

4.5.3 Strengths of Analysis 

5 Disease Management 

5.1 Influenza Vaccination Policy 

5.2 United States 

5.2.1 Influenza Vaccination Recommendations and Policies 

5.2.2 Clinical Practice 

5.3 France 

5.3.1 Influenza Vaccination Recommendations and Policies 

5.3.2 Clinical Practice 

5.4 Germany 

5.4.1 Influenza Vaccination Recommendations and Policies 

5.4.2 Clinical Practice 

5.5 Italy 

5.5.1 Influenza Vaccination Recommendations and Policies 

5.5.2 Clinical Practice 

5.6 Spain 

5.6.1 Influenza Vaccination Recommendations and Policies 

5.6.2 Clinical Practice 

5.7 United Kingdom 

5.7.1 Influenza Vaccination Recommendations and Policies 

5.7.2 Clinical Practice 

5.8 Japan 

5.8.1 Influenza Vaccination Recommendations and Policies 

5.8.2 Clinical Practice 

5.9 China 

5.9.1 Influenza Vaccination Recommendations and Policies 

5.9.2 Clinical Practice 

5.10 India 

5.10.1 Influenza Vaccination Recommendations and Policies 

5.10.2 Clinical Practice 

6 Competitive Assessment 

6.1 Overview 

6.2 Strategic Competitor Assessment 

6.3 Product Profiles - Major Brands 

6.3.1 Fluzone 

6.3.2 Vaxigrip/Mutagrip 

6.3.3 Fluarix/FluLaval 

6.3.4 FluMist 

6.3.5 Fluzone High-Dose 

6.3.6 Fluad 

6.3.7 Fluzone ID (Intradermal)/Intanza 

6.3.8 Optaflu/Flucelvax 

6.3.9 Flublok 

6.3.10 Fluvirin 

6.3.11 Afluria 

6.3.12 Influvac 

6.3.13 Agrippal 

7 Opportunity and Unmet Need 

7.1 Overview 

7.2 Unmet Needs 

7.2.1 Higher level of patient awareness 

7.2.2 Increased efficacy in the elderly and young children (<2 years old) 

7.2.3 Improved vaccine side-effect profiles 

7.2.4 More efficient vaccine manufacturing process 

7.2.5 More cost-effective vaccines 

7.3 Gap Analysis 

7.4 Opportunities 

7.4.1 Expanded breadth of protection against viral strains 

7.4.2 Increased duration of protection 

7.4.3 T-cell involvement 

8 Pipeline Assessment 

8.1 Overview 

8.2 Clinical Trial Mapping 

8.2.1 Clinical Trials by Country 

8.3 Clinical Trials by Phase and Trial Status 

8.4 Promising vaccines in clinical development 

8.4.1 ASP7374 (UMN-0502) 

8.4.2 Influenza VLP Vaccine 

9 Current and Future Players 

9.1 Overview 

9.2 Trends in Corporate Strategy 

9.3 Company Profiles 

9.3.1 Sanofi 

9.3.2 AstraZeneca (MedImmune) 

9.3.3 Novartis 

9.3.4 GlaxoSmithKline 

9.3.5 CSL Biotherapies 

9.3.6 Abbott 

9.3.7 Protein Sciences Corporation 

9.3.8 Novavax 

10 Market Outlook 

10.1 Global Markets 

10.1.1 Forecast 

10.1.2 Drivers and Barriers - Global Issues 

10.2 United States 

10.2.1 Forecast 

10.2.2 Key Events 

10.2.3 Drivers and Barriers 

10.3 France 

10.3.1 Forecast 

10.3.2 Key Events 

10.3.3 Drivers and Barriers 

10.4 Germany 

10.4.1 Forecast 

10.4.2 Key Events 

10.4.3 Drivers and Barriers 

10.5 Italy 

10.5.1 Forecast 

10.5.2 Key Events 

10.5.3 Drivers and Barriers 

10.6 Spain 

10.6.1 Forecast 

10.6.2 Key Events 

10.6.3 Drivers and Barriers 

10.7 United Kingdom 

10.7.1 Forecast 

10.7.2 Key Events 

10.7.3 Drivers and Barriers 

10.8 Japan 

10.8.1 Forecast 

10.8.2 Key Events 

10.8.3 Drivers and Barriers 

10.9 China 

10.9.1 Forecast 

10.9.2 Key Events 

10.9.3 Drivers and Barriers 

10.10 India 

10.10.1 Forecast 

10.10.2 Key Events 

10.10.3 Drivers and Barriers 

11 Appendix 

11.1 Bibliography 

11.2 Abbreviations 

11.3 Methodology 

11.4 Forecasting Methodology 

11.4.1 Vaccine Coverage 

11.4.2 Vaccines Included 

11.4.3 Key Launch Dates 

11.4.4 Influenza Vaccine Tender System Assumptions 

11.4.5 General Pricing Assumptions 

11.4.6 Individual Vaccine Assumptions 

11.4.7 Pricing of Pipeline Agents 

11.5 Physicians and Specialists Included in this Study 

11.6 Primary Research - Prescriber Survey 

11.7 About the Authors 

11.7.1 Authors 

11.7.2 Epidemiologists 

11.7.3 Global Head of Healthcare 

11.8 About GlobalData 

11.9 Disclaimer 

1.1 List of Tables 

Table 1: Notable Influenza Pandemics 

Table 2: Symptoms of Influenza 

Table 3: United States, Sources of Vaccination Coverage Data 

Table 4: France, Sources of Vaccination Coverage Data 

Table 5: Germany, Sources of Vaccination Coverage Data 

Table 6: Italy, Sources of Vaccination Coverage Data 

Table 7: Spain, Sources of Vaccination Coverage Data 

Table 8: United Kingdom, Sources of Vaccination Coverage Data 

Table 9: Japan, Sources of Vaccination Coverage Data 

Table 10: India and China, Sources of Vaccination Coverage Data 

Table 11: Nine Markets, Seasonal Vaccination Coverage, N (%), 2012-2022 

Table 12: Influenza Vaccination Recommendation Committees by Country 

Table 13: Most Administered Influenza Vaccines by Country in the Global Markets, 2013 

Table 14: Leading Influenza Vaccines, 2013 

Table 15: Product Profile - Fluzone 

Table 16: Fluzone SWOT Analysis, 2013 

Table 17: Global Sales Forecasts ($m) for Fluzone, 2012-2022 

Table 18: Product Profile - Vaxigrip 

Table 19: Laboratory-Confirmed Influenza Infection Rates in Vaccine or Placebo Recipients and their Household Contacts 

Table 20: Vaxigrip SWOT Analysis, 2013 

Table 21: Global Sales Forecasts ($m) for Vaxigrip, 2012-2022 

Table 22: Product Profile - Fluarix 

Table 23: Fluarix SWOT Analysis, 2013 

Table 24: Global Sales Forecasts ($m) for Fluarix, 2012-2022 

Table 25: Product Profile - FluMist 

Table 26: FluMist SWOT Analysis, 2013 

Table 27: Global Sales Forecasts ($m) for FluMist, 2012-2022 

Table 28: Product Profile - Fluzone High-Dose 

Table 29: Non-inferiority comparison of Fluzone High-Dose and Standard-Dose Vaccines 

Table 30: Fluzone High-Dose SWOT Analysis, 2013 

Table 31: Global Sales Forecasts ($m) for Fluzone High-Dose, 2012-2022 

Table 32: Product Profile - Fluad 

Table 33: Fluad SWOT Analysis, 2013 

Table 34: Global Sales Forecasts ($m) for Fluad, 2012-2022 

Table 35: Product Profile - Fluzone ID/Intanza 

Table 36: Non-inferiority Comparison of Fluzone ID and IM Vaccines 

Table 37: Fluzone ID/Intanza SWOT Analysis, 2013 

Table 38: Global Sales Forecasts ($m) for Fluzone ID/Intanza, 2012-2022 

Table 39: Product Profile - Optaflu/Flucelvax 

Table 40: Optaflu/Flucelvax SWOT Analysis, 2013 

Table 41: Global Sales Forecasts ($m) for Optaflu/Flucelvax, 2012-2022 

Table 42: Product Profile - Flublok 

Table 43: Flublok SWOT Analysis, 2013 

Table 44: Global Sales Forecasts ($m) for Flublok, 2012-2022 

Table 45: Product Profile - Fluvirin 

Table 46: Immunogenicity of Agrippal and Fluvirin 

Table 47: Fluvirin SWOT Analysis, 2013 

Table 48: Global Sales Forecasts ($m) for Fluvirin, 2012-2022 

Table 49: Product Profile - Afluria 

Table 50: Afluria SWOT Analysis, 2013 

Table 51: Global Sales Forecasts ($m) for Afluria, 2012-2022 

Table 52: Product Profile - Influvac 

Table 53: Influvac SWOT Analysis, 2013 

Table 54: Global Sales Forecasts ($m) for Influvac, 2012-2022 

Table 55: Product Profile - Agrippal 

Table 56: Agrippal SWOT Analysis, 2013 

Table 57: Global Sales Forecasts ($m) for Agrippal, 2012-2022 

Table 58: Overall Unmet Needs - Current Level of Attainment, 2013 

Table 59: Clinical Unmet Needs - Gap Analysis, 2013 

Table 60: Seasonal Influenza - Clinical Trials by Phase and Status, 2013 

Table 61: Seasonal Influenza Vaccines - Phase Pipeline, 2013 

Table 62: Product Profile - ASP7374 (UMN-0502) 

Table 63: ASP7374 (UMN-0502) SWOT Analysis, 2013 

Table 64: Global Sales Forecasts ($m) for ASP7374 (UMN-0502), 2012-2022 

Table 65: Product Profile - Influenza VLP Vaccine 

Table 66: Influenza VLP Vaccine SWOT Analysis, 2013 

Table 67: Global Sales Forecasts ($m) for Influenza VLP Vaccine, 2012-2022 

Table 68: Key Companies in the Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Market, 2013 

Table 69: Sanofi’s Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Portfolio Assessment, 2013 

Table 70: Sanofi SWOT Analysis, 2013 

Table 71: AstraZeneca’s Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Portfolio Assessment, 2013 

Table 72: AstraZeneca SWOT Analysis, 2013 

Table 73: Novartis’ Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Portfolio Assessment, 2013 

Table 74: Novartis SWOT Analysis, 2013 

Table 75: GlaxoSmithKline’s Seasonal Vaccine Portfolio Assessment, 2013 

Table 76: GlaxoSmithKline’s SWOT Analysis, 2013 

Table 77: CSL Biotherapies’ Seasonal Vaccine Portfolio Assessment, 2013 

Table 78: CSL Biotherapies SWOT Analysis, 2013 

Table 79: Abbott’s Seasonal Vaccine Portfolio Assessment, 2013 

Table 80: Abbott SWOT Analysis, 2013 

Table 81: Protein Science’s Seasonal Vaccine Portfolio Assessment, 2013 

Table 82: Protein Sciences SWOT Analysis, 2013 

Table 83: Novavax’s Seasonal Vaccine Portfolio Assessment, 2013 

Table 84: Novavax SWOT Analysis, 2013 

Table 85: Global Sales Forecasts ($m) for Influenza Vaccines, 2012-2022 

Table 86: Influenza Vaccine Market - Drivers and Barriers, 2013 

Table 87: Sales Forecasts ($m) for Influenza Vaccines in the United States, 2012-2022 

Table 88: Key Events Impacting Sales of Influenza Vaccines in US, 2013 

Table 89: US Influenza Vaccine Market - Drivers and Barriers, 2013 

Table 90: Sales Forecasts ($m) for Influenza Vaccines in France, 2012-2022 

Table 91: Key Events Impacting Sales of Influenza Vaccines in France, 2013 

Table 92: French Influenza Vaccine Market - Drivers and Barriers, 2013 

Table 93: Sales Forecasts ($m) for Influenza Vaccines in Germany, 2012-2022 

Table 94: Key Events Impacting Sales of Influenza Vaccines in Germany, 2013 

Table 95: German Influenza Vaccine Market - Drivers and Barriers, 2013 

Table 96: Sales Forecasts ($m) for Influenza Vaccines in Italy, 2012-2022 

Table 97: Key Events Impacting Sales of Influenza Vaccines in Italy, 2013 

Table 98: Italian Influenza Vaccine Market - Drivers and Barriers, 2013 

Table 99: Sales Forecasts ($m) for Influenza Vaccines in Spain, 2012-2022 

Table 100: Key Events Impacting Sales of Influenza Vaccines in Spain, 2013 

Table 101: Spanish Influenza Vaccine Market - Drivers and Barriers, 2013 

Table 102: Sales Forecasts ($m) for Influenza Vaccines in the United Kingdom, 2012-2022 

Table 103: Key Events Impacting Sales for Influenza Vaccines in UK, 2013 

Table 104: UK Influenza Vaccine Market - Drivers and Barriers, 2013 

Table 105: British Influenza Vaccine Uptake Scenarios for Childhood Influenza Vaccination Program, 2012-2022 (in millions) 

Table 106: Sales Forecasts ($m) for Influenza Vaccines in Japan, 2012-2022 

Table 107: Key Events Impacting Sales of Influenza Vaccines in Japan, 2013 

Table 108: Japanese Influenza Vaccine Market - Drivers and Barriers, 2013 

Table 109: Sales Forecasts ($m) for Influenza Vaccines in China, 2012-2022 

Table 110: Key Events Impacting Sales of Influenza Vaccines in China, 2013 

Table 111: Chinese Influenza Vaccine Market - Drivers and Barriers, 2013 

Table 112: Sales Forecasts ($m) for Influenza Vaccines in India, 2012-2022 

Table 113: Key Events Impacting Sales of Influenza Vaccines in India, 2013 

Table 114: Indian Influenza Vaccine Market - Drivers and Barriers, 2013 

Table 115: Epidemiology and Market Forecast Chinese Influenza Vaccination Rates (%), 2012-2022 

Table 116: Key Launch Dates 

Table 117: Physicians Surveyed, By Country 

1.2 List of Figures 

Figure 1: Influenza Virus Structure 

Figure 2: United States, Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Coverage, 2001-2022 

Figure 3: France, Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Coverage, 2001-2022 

Figure 4: Germany, Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Coverage, 2001-2022 

Figure 5: Italy, Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Coverage, 2001-2022 

Figure 6: Spain, Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Coverage, 2001-2022 

Figure 7: United Kingdom, Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Coverage, 2001-2022 

Figure 8: Japan, Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Coverage, 2001-2022 

Figure 9: China, Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Coverage, 2001-2022 

Figure 10: India, Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Coverage, 2001-2022 

Figure 11: All Markets, Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Coverage (N), 2012-2022 

Figure 12: Seasonal Influenza Vaccines - Clinical Trials by Country, 2013 

Figure 13: Competitive Assessment of Influential Seasonal Influenza Vaccines, 2012-2022 

Figure 14: Company Portfolio Gap Analysis in Seasonal Influenza Vaccines, 2012-2022 

Figure 15: Global Sales of Influenza Vaccines by Region, 2012-2022 

Figure 16: Sales for Influenza Vaccines in the United States by Route of Administration, 2012-2022 

Figure 17: Sales for Influenza Vaccines in France by Route of Administration, 2012-2022 

Figure 18: Sales for Influenza Vaccines in Germany by Route of Administration, 2012-2022 

Figure 19: Sales for Influenza Vaccines in Italy by Route of Administration, 2012-2022 

Figure 20: Sales for Influenza Vaccines in Spain by Route of Administration, 2012-2022 

Figure 21: Sales for Influenza Vaccines the United Kingdom by Route of Administration, 2012-2022 

Figure 22: Sales for Influenza Vaccine in China by Route of administration, 2012-2022 

Figure 23: Sales for Influenza Vaccines in India by Route of Administration, 2012-2022